Link to Webpage: https://ssg-research.github.io/mlsec/interactions/
Code: https://github.com/ssg-research/sok-collusion
Paper Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.10091
Problem Statement
Adversaries with different objectives in an ML pipeline can execute distinct attacks. Although these attacks are typically studied independently, collusion can arise when adversaries coordinate to use the outcomes of one attack to improve another. Such collusion is common in other domains, e.g., cryptocurrency pump-and-dump schemes and cybercrime markets, where adversaries share resources or monetize attack outcomes. Similar incentives exist in ML pipelines through attack information markets or cost sharing, motivating the need to investigate colluding adversaries.
However, existing work lacks a systematic framework to identify collusion opportunities, understand the role of adversary characteristics, or predict the potential for collusion. A unified framework may help identify new threats, design stronger red-teaming mechanisms, and develop effective defenses. This work presents the first framework for analyzing factors that enable collusion. This raises the following questions: What are the underlying factors that aid collusion among adversaries, and how can we predict the potential for collusion?
Our framework covers two collusion types identified from prior work: (i) between
train- and test-time adversaries (→ “train-inference collusion”), and (ii) among test-time adversaries (→ “test-time collusion”). We observe that in both types of collusion, a successful attack changes certain factors (such as overfitting), which can influence the effectiveness of other attacks relying on those factors. However, these factors differ between both collusion types (described below). By studying these factors, we show that we can not only explain collusion in prior work but also predict unexplored cases of collusion.
Train-inference Collusion
In case of train-inference collusion, the first adversary is train-time adversary, typically executing poisoning attacks, while the second adversary is an inference-time adversary. For instance, Adversary-1 can execute poisoning during train-time to increase effectiveness of inference-time privacy attacks (e.g., membership/attribute/distribution inference, data reconstruction) executed by Adversary-2. For train-inference collusion, poisoning changes the factors underlying overfitting and memorization which can impact the effectiveness of inference-time attacks that rely on those factors (Figure 1). Here, the framework includes the factors underlying overfitting and memorization, which can be manipulated by the train-time adversary through poisoning.
Figure 1 (Train-inference Collusion): Adversary-1 is a train-time adversary that uses attacks such as poisoning to manipulate factors affecting overfitting and memorization. Since these factors influence inference-time attacks by Adversary-2, poisoning-induced changes can improve their effectiveness.
By understanding how poisoning changes key factors and how these factors affect inference-time attacks, we can predict collusion potential, i.e., whether poisoning can improve inference-time attack effectiveness. We identify three factors influencing overfitting and memorization that adversaries can control: (a) training data distribution tail length, and model observability differences across (b) datasets and (c) demographic subgroups. Figure 2 shows how poisoning affects these factors (left column) and how factor changes correlate with inference-time attack effectiveness (right column).
Figure 2 (Relation of Factors with Attacks): We identify how poisoning affects factors related to overfitting and memorization (left), and how changes in these factors influence inference-time attack effectiveness (right), with correlations represented as arrows.
To determine collusion potential, we evaluate whether poisoning can favorably alter factors that improve inference-time attack effectiveness. Specifically, by comparing the direction of changes between poisoning with factors, and change in factors with inference-time attacks, we identify whether poisoning can enhance inference-time attacks, indicating potential for collusion (<↑, ↑>).
Inference-time Collusion
In inference-time collusion, both the adversaries execute attacks during inference-time. For instance, the first adversary can find adversarial examples for evasion to increase effectiveness of privacy attacks executed by the second adversary. For inference-time collusion, knowledge inferred from the first attack is treated as an outcome that satisfies the prerequisite for the second attack. Here, factors related to adversary's knowledge (e.g., of training data, target model) are included as part of the framework.
Figure 3 (Inference-time Collusion): Adversary-1 executes inference-time attacks to learn information about the target model and dataset, which serves as prerequisites for improving other inference-time attacks.
Hence, by identifying attack outcomes that serve as prerequisites for other attacks, we can predict the potential for collusion. We identify four key factors related to knowledge of the target model and its training data: (a) quality and overlap of the adversary's auxiliary data, (b) similarity between the auxiliary and training data distributions, (c) functional similarity between the shadow and target models, and (d) architectural similarity between the shadow and target models. While many inference-time attacks depend on these factors, successfully executing some attacks also reveals or improves them. This enhanced knowledge enables more accurate shadow models, increasing attack transferability and the potential for collusion.
Figure 4 (Relation of Factors with Attacks): We identify how executing one inference-time attack correlated with the change in factors (left column); and how change in factors correlate with the second attack effectiveness (right column).
To determine the potential for collusion among inference-time adversaries, we identify the outcomes of different attacks (Figure 4: left column) and the factors correlated with attack effectiveness (Figure 4: right column). Two adversaries executing different inference-time attacks have collusion potential if an outcome of the first satisfies a prerequisite of the second (indicated by <↑, ↑>).
Summary
We validate our guideline by (a) applying it to collusion cases reported in prior work to determine whether it explains the observed empirical results, and (b) comparing its predictions against empirical evaluations of five previously unexplored collusion scenarios. Our results show that the guideline both explains known collusions and accurately predicts new ones. Overall, by identifying factors shared across attacks, we provide a guideline for predicting collusion potential and demonstrate its ability to explain and predict collusion, while also highlighting the influence of adversary characteristics (see the paper for details).
Artifact for Evaluating Colluding Adversaries
Our codebase supports five empirical interactions: one for train-time inference and four for inference-time collusion, cross attacks including data poisoning, model extraction, distribution inference, data reconstruction, and membership inference. We find low collusion potential between poisoning and model extraction, but high potential between model extraction and distribution inference, and between data reconstruction and distribution inference, membership inference, and attribute inference.
The codebase can be extended into a library covering various attacks, enabling researchers and practitioners to systematically evaluate collusion potential, validate our guidelines, and identify worst-case attack combinations. We invite the community to build on this foundation to explore additional attacks, variants, and unexplored collusion scenarios.
Acknowledgements: This work was supported in part by Wallenberg Visiting Professor Program, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (grant number RGPIN-2026-04826), and the Government of Ontario (RE011-038).




